QuickStats: Homicide and Suicide† Death Rates for Persons Aged 15–19 Years — National Vital Statistics System, United States, 1999–201

June 8, 2018

In 1999, the homicide death rate for persons aged 15–19 years (10.4 per 100,000) was higher than the suicide rate (8.0). By 2010–2011, the homicide and suicide rates had converged.

After 2011, the suicide rate increased to 10.0 in 2016; the homicide rate declined through 2013 but then increased to 8.6 in 2016.

Source: National Vital Statistics System. 1999–2016. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/deaths.htm

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/67/wr/mm6722a7.htm

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QuickStats: Breast Cancer Death Rates Among Women Aged 50–74 Years, by Race/Ethnicity — National Vital Statistics System, United States, 2006 and 2016

June 4, 2018

The U.S. death rate from breast cancer among all women aged 50–74 years decreased 15.1%, from 53.8 per 100,000 in 2006 to 45.7 in 2016.

In both 2006 and 2016, the death rate was higher among non-Hispanic black women compared with non-Hispanic white women and Hispanic women.

From 2006 to 2016, the death rate from breast cancer decreased for non-Hispanic white women from 54.6 per 100,000 to 46.2, for Hispanic women from 34.8 to 31.0, and for non-Hispanic black women from 71.7 to 64.1.

Source: National Vital Statistics System, 2006 and 2016. https://wonder.cdc.gov/ucd-icd10.html.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/67/wr/mm6721a8.htm


Recent Increases in Injury Mortality Among Children and Adolescents Aged 10–19 Years in the United States: 1999–2016

June 4, 2018

NCHS released a new report that presents numbers of injury deaths and death rates for children and adolescents aged 10–19 years in the United States for 1999–2016.

Numbers and rates are presented by sex for 1999–2016, by injury intent (e.g., unintentional, suicide, and homicide) and method (e.g., motor vehicle traffic, firearms, and suffocation). Numbers and rates of death according to leading injury intents and methods are shown by sex for ages 10–14 years and 15–19 years for 2016.

Findings:

  • The total death rate for persons aged 10–19 years declined 33% between 1999 (44.4 per 100,000 population) and 2013 (29.6) and then increased 12% between 2013 and 2016 (33.1).
  • This recent rise is attributable to an increase in injury deaths for persons aged 10–19 years during 2013–2016.
  • Increases occurred among all three leading injury intents (unintentional, suicide, and homicide) during 2013–2016.
  • Unintentional injury, the leading injury intent for children and adolescents aged 10–19 years in 2016, declined 49% between 1999 (20.6) and 2013 (10.6), and then increased 13% between 2013 and 2016 (12.0).
  • The death rate for suicide, the second leading injury intent among ages 10–19 years in 2016, declined 15% between 1999 and 2007 (from 4.6 to 3.9), and then increased 56% between 2007 and 2016 (6.1).
  • The death rate for homicide, the third leading intent of injury death in 2016, fluctuated and then declined 35% between 2007 (5.7) and 2014 (3.7) before increasing 27%, to 4.7 in 2016.

Births: Provisional Data for 2017

May 17, 2018

Questions for Brady E. Hamilton, Ph.D., Demographer, Statistician, and Lead Author of “Births: Provisional Data for 2017

Q: What did you think was the most interesting finding in your new analysis?

BH: The report includes a number of very interesting findings. The general fertility rate, 60.2 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44, declining 3% in 2017 and reaching a record low is certainly noteworthy. In addition, the continued decline in the birth rate for teens, down 7% from 2016 to in 2017, and reaching another record low, is very significant. The increase in the cesarean delivery rate following several years of decline is noteworthy as are the recent increase in rates of preterm and low birthweight births.


Q: Why does fertility keep going down in the U.S.?

BH: In general, there are a number of factors associated with fertility. The data on which the report is based comes from the birth certificates registered for births in the U.S. While the scope of this data is essentially all births in the country, and provides detailed information about rare events, small areas, or small population groups, the data does not provide information about the parent’s decision to have (or not have) a child. And so, accordingly, we cannot examine the “why” of the changes and trends in births.


Q: Does the decline in the Total Fertility Rate essentially mean fertility is down below “replacement” levels?  Could you explain this in general terms?

BH: “Replacement” refers to a minimum rate of reproduction necessary for generation to exactly replace itself, that is, enough children born to replace a group of 1,000 women and their partners. For the total fertility rate, this rate is generally considered to be 2,100 births per 1,000 women. In 2017, the total fertility rate, 1,764.5 births per 1,000 women, was below replacement.


Q: Do the increases among women over 40 suggest a “new norm” in people waiting till much later to have children?

BH: Birth rates for women aged 40-44 and 45-49 years have increased generally over the last 3 decades. Given this, it reasonable to expect this trend to continue.


Q: Are the annual declines in teen pregnancy something that we are in danger of taking for granted?

BH: The birth rate for females aged 15-19 has decreased 8% per year from 2007 through 2017. For comparison, the decline in the birth rates for women aged 20-24 and 25-29 was 4% and 2% from 2007 through 2017. The decline in teen births is very noteworthy.


Q: Can you explain how the increases in preterm births and low birthweight are connected?

BH: Infants born preterm are also often, but not exclusively, born low birthweight and vice-versa.  The causes of the recent upward shift in these rates are not well understood.


QuickStats: Age-Adjusted Death Rates for Drug Overdose by Race/Ethnicity — National Vital Statistics System, United States, 2015–2016

April 2, 2018

During 2015–2016, the age-adjusted death rates from drug overdose for the total population increased from 16.3 per 100,000 standard population to 19.8 (21.5%).

The rate increased from 21.1 to 25.3 (19.9%) for non-Hispanic whites, from 12.2 to 17.1 (40.2%) for non-Hispanic blacks, and from 7.7 to 9.5 (23.4%) for Hispanics.

Source: National Vital Statistics System, Underlying cause of death data, 1999–2016. https://wonder.cdc.gov/ucd-icd10.html.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/67/wr/mm6712a9.htm


QuickStats: Human Immunodeficiency Virus Disease Death Rates Among Women Aged 45–64 Years, by Race and Age Group — National Vital Statistics System, United States, 2000–2015

September 25, 2017

Among black women aged 45–54 years, the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease death rate decreased 60% from 28.4 per 100,000 in 2006 to 11.5 in 2015.

Among black women aged 55–64 years, the rate increased 42% from 10.0 in 2000 to 14.2 in 2008, before declining to 10.3 in 2015.

Among white women aged 45–54 years, the rate decreased 53% from 1.9 in 2005 to 0.9 in 2015.

Among white women aged 55–64 years, the rate did not change, remaining at about 0.8.

Throughout the period, HIV disease death rates among black women were higher compared with rates among white women for both age groups.

Source: National Vital Statistics System

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/66/wr/mm6637a11.htm


Quarterly Provisional Estimates for Selected Birth Indicators, 2015—Quarter 1, 2017 Quarterly Provisional Estimates of Infant Mortality, 2014—Quarter 3, 2016 Vital Statistics Rapid Release from the National Vital Statistics System

August 8, 2017

Lauren_RossenQuestions for Lauren Rossen, Ph.D., Health Statistician and Lead Author of “Quarterly Provisional Estimates for Selected Birth Indicators”and “Quarterly Provisional Estimates of Infant Mortality

Q: What findings in your new data analyses on births and infant mortality most surprised you and why?

LR:  These latest quarterly provisional estimates suggest that the steady decline in teen birth rates that we have seen over the past several years is continuing into 2017, which is good news. What is of concern is the recent uptick in preterm birth rates, a trend that emerged in 2015 and that has unfortunately continued into 2016 and early 2017.


Q: What is the difference between the Rapid Release provisional estimates on births released today and the report from your office released last month, “Births: Provisional Data for 2016”? And how are these two provisional data analyses different from your office’s “preliminary data” released in the recent past?

LR:  The most recent Quarterly Provisional Estimates provide an update to some of the data released in the recent report, Births: Provisional Data for 2016. That report is similar to previous “preliminary birth data” reports, but is redesigned and released under our Vital Statistics Rapid Release (VSRR) program. We hope that the VSRR program can be a one-stop-shop for our provisional vital statistics data. The Quarterly Provisional Estimates describe very recent trends in key indicators of maternal and infant health from the birth and mortality data the report, Births: Provisional Data for 2016, provides some critical context for understanding these recent trends.  report also describes some additional demographic and reproductive health indicators that aren’t yet available in the Quarterly Provisional Estimates, such as birth rates by race and Hispanic origin, as well as the timing of prenatal care.


Q: What in your data analyses can be attributed to no change in infant mortality in the last few quarters?

LR: is another surprising and concerning finding, because infant mortality rates have generally been declining over the past decade, at least through 2014. These declines seem to have leveled off more recently, according to our provisional estimates. We can’t speak to why infant mortality rates might no longer be declining, but we are planning future research to help us better understand this troubling trend.    


Q: What differences did you see among various age groups of mothers?

LR: There is a great deal of detail in the recent report, Births: Provisional Data for 2016, discussing how age-specific birth rates have changed recently. Generally, both that report and our recent Quarterly Provisional Estimates show that maternal age is increasing. Birth rates among younger women (under 30) are going down, while those among women 35 and up are increasing.


Q: What are seasonal fluctuations in the number of infant deaths and births, and what do you mean by accounting for seasonality as you described in your report’s preface?

LR: People may not think that there are seasonal patterns to births, but it turns out that there are more babies born in the third quarter of the year, from July-September, than during other parts of the year. There are seasonal patterns in other indicators as well. For example, preterm birth rates dip slightly in the third quarter compared with other quarters, while infant mortality rates tend to be a bit higher in the beginning of the year than toward the end of the year. So to ensure that any differences we find aren’t influenced by seasonal fluctuations, we only compare the most recent quarter with the same quarter from the previous year. We also present 12 month-ending estimates, which include all seasons of the year, and thus aren’t subject to seasonal ups and downs.