In 2024, Arizona’s population stands at approximately 7.5 million, marking a substantial increase from the 2010 census.
The data reveals that the state has consistently been one of the fastest-growing regions in the United States.
From 2023 to 2026, annual growth rates are projected to decrease slightly, settling at around 1.3% per year. Despite this deceleration, Arizona’s growth rate remains above the national average, driven by factors such as job opportunities and a favorable climate.
By exploring the various projections and demographic trends, we can gain deeper insights into the state’s future. This article delves into key data points and projections for Arizona’s population in 2024, providing a comprehensive overview of what lies ahead.
Population Size and Density
As of 2024, Arizona’s population is approximately 7,497,004 as per World Population Review. This figure represents significant growth since the 2010 census, which recorded a population of 6,392,017. The state has seen substantial population increases, only marginally tapering at times.
Population density varies considerably across the state. Metro areas like Phoenix and Tucson are more densely populated.
Rural regions, conversely, maintain much lower population densities. Such demographic trends highlight Arizona’s urbanization and the continued influx of residents to its metropolitan centers.
County Population
Age Distribution
The age distribution in Arizona shows a balanced spread across different age groups. As of the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau and other sources, Arizona’s population is categorized as follows:
- Under 18 years: 1.59 million, making up 22.22% of the total population.
- Ages 18 to 64 years: 4.28 million, representing 59.69% of the population.
- 65 years and over: 1.3 million, or 18.09% of the population.
This breakdown highlights that Arizona has a relatively younger population, with a significant portion in the working-age group (18-64 years), although the senior population (65 and older) is growing at 18.09%, which is higher than the national average of 16.53%. This reflects trends toward an aging population, similar to nationwide shifts.
Arizona’s largest age group consists of individuals aged 25 to 29, with about 501,624 people (7.02% of the total population). Meanwhile, the smallest group is those 85 years and older, at 1.94% of the population. The state also has a relatively balanced gender ratio with slightly more females than males according to U.S Census.
Gender Ratio
The gender ratio in Arizona, as per the U.S. Census Bureau’s data, is nearly balanced, with slightly more females than males. Weisberg notes that the current gender ratio is approximately 99.7 males for every 100 females. This translates to 50.08% females and 49.92% males in the state.
Ethnic and Racial Composition
Decade by Decade Analysis
USAFacts says in their research that between 1900 and 2020, Arizona witnessed substantial population increases. In the early 1900s, Arizona had a relatively modest population.
The 1940s marked a turning point with an influx of defense industry jobs during World War II.
From 1990 to 2000, Arizona was the second fastest-growing state with nearly a 40% increase.
By 2020, Arizona’s population surpassed 7 million, showing an 11.9% increase since 2010.
Population Growth Projections
In the short term, Arizona’s population growth remains positive. According to government officials, projections indicate a population growth rate of approximately 1.3% per year through 2026. As of 2024, the population is projected to be 7,497,004, reflecting consistent annual increases from previous years.
From 2023 to 2025, job growth is expected to decelerate slightly from 2.1% to 1.9%. Despite this, Arizona’s job gains are predicted to outpace national averages, suggesting economic factors will continue to attract new residents.
Looking further ahead, projections show a more moderate population growth rate. By 2060, sub-county projections predict a steady but slower increase compared to earlier decades. Factors contributing to these predictions include economic conditions and demographic shifts.
By 2080, the U.S. population is expected to peak at nearly 370 million and then slightly decline to 366 million by 2100. Arizona’s growth patterns will likely align with these national trends, emphasizing a stable but slowing population expansion over the long term.
Housing Market
The median home price in Arizona rose by 3.6% year-over-year in May 2024, reaching $451,500. However, the number of homes sold declined by 6.2%, indicating a slowing market. Homes spent an average of 51 days on the market, slightly longer than in previous years.
Housing Supply: There was an increase in available homes, with 38,949 homes for sale in May 2024, up by 21.6% from the previous year. As Redfin noted newly listed homes increased by 15.3%, but inventory remains limited overall, keeping competition high in certain areas.
Housing Demand: About 17.5% of homes sold above the list price, showing strong demand despite fewer overall sales. However, 33.7% of homes had price drops, up from 27% last year, indicating some softening in certain parts of the market.
Top Areas with Rising Home Prices
- Eloy: 34.3% increase
- Tanque Verde: 30.4% increase
- Fort Mohave: 16.5% increase
- Paradise Valley: 13.1% increase
Metric
Value
Median Home Price
$451,500
Homes Sold
9,838 (-6.2% YoY)
Homes for Sale
38,949 (+21.6% YoY)
Median Days on Market
51
Homes Sold Above List Price
17.5%
Homes with Price Drops
33.7%
Labor Market Dynamics
Employment Growth
- Arizona added 8,200 nonfarm jobs in September 2023, reflecting a 0.26% increase, while the U.S. saw a 0.37% increase. Common Sense Institute Home says that the manufacturing sector alone gained 1,400 jobs during this period, a strong recovery after previous stagnation.
- Over the year, Arizona’s job growth was 1.9%, a slowdown from the 3.5% growth rate seen the previous year. Since April 2020, the state has added 516,600 jobs, recovering 106% of its pandemic-related job losses.
Unemployment and Labor Force Participation
- As of September 2023, Arizona’s unemployment rate stood at 4.0%, a slight increase from earlier months. However, the labor force participation rate rose to 61.9%, suggesting a recovering labor market.
- The state’s average hourly wage grew by 3.7% year-over-year, but due to high inflation, real wages have declined by 6% since February 2020.
Industry Trends
- Manufacturing is one of the fastest-growing sectors, with jobs in this area paying around $32.65/hour, slightly above the state average. Bureau of Labor Statistics noted that despite temporary setbacks, this sector has shown consistent job gains.
Gross job gains in the fourth quarter of 2023 accounted for 6.6% of private-sector employment in Arizona, outperforming the national average of 5.9%. This growth was mainly driven by expansions in existing establishments according to gov sources.
Metric
Value
Nonfarm Jobs Added (Sept. 2023)
+8,200
Year-over-Year Job Growth
1.9%
Unemployment Rate
4.0%
Labor Force Participation Rate
61.9%
Manufacturing Sector Jobs Added
+1,400
Average Hourly Wage
$31.80
Real Wage Decline (since 2020)
-6%
Educational Statistics
Arizona’s high school graduation rate stands at 77.3%, which is below the national average of 86.6%. Among Arizona counties, Greenlee County had the highest graduation rate at 94.0%, while Pima County ranked the lowest at 71.2%. Arizona has seen improvements since 2021, when the rate dropped to 76.4%, following the national trend of rising graduation rates as per the Arizona MAP Dashboard.
Arizona Department of Education says that the number of residents with bachelor’s degrees or higher is increasing, reflecting Arizona’s focus on higher education. Tucson, for example, reports a 35% attainment rate for four-year degrees. This increase is tied to Arizona’s broader efforts to improve education in key areas like STEM fields, which are crucial for the state’s economic growth.
Student Population Trends
Enrollment in Arizona’s K-12 system remains steady, while postsecondary enrollment has seen an increase, particularly among part-time students. This shift is driven by greater flexibility in education programs, such as online courses, which are expanding access for students across the state.
In a similar trend, educational attainment levels in Utah have shown consistent growth, reflecting a broader focus on academic progress across the region.
Impact of Migration
The state saw a population increase of 1.3% from July 2021 to July 2022, adding 94,320 new residents. This growth is attributed to favorable living conditions, job opportunities, and a relatively lower cost of living.
Conversely, emigration rates remain lower compared to immigration. While specific data on emigration is not readily available, the overall net migration remains positive. This indicates that more people are moving into Arizona than leaving, bolstering its population numbers and diverse demographic makeup.
Internal Migration Trends
Internal migration trends in Arizona reveal a significant influx of residents from other states. The Arizona Economy Outlook projects continuous, albeit slowing, job growth. This makes Arizona an attractive option for those seeking employment and better living standards.
Population increases also result from movements within the state. Rural-to-urban migration contributes to the growth of cities like Phoenix and Tucson. Additionally, Arizona’s favorable climate and amenities attract retirees, adding to the state’s demographic diversity.
Policy Implications
Arizona’s ongoing population growth demands a shift in urban planning strategies. Cities must prioritize affordable housing development to keep pace with rising demand. This could involve promoting mixed-use developments that combine residential, commercial, and recreational spaces, thus fostering community integration while efficiently utilizing available land.
The state’s projected population growth through 2026 further emphasizes the need for such planning as per AZ Report Cards.
Zoning reforms are critical to managing urban sprawl. By encouraging higher-density developments, cities can reduce the impact of sprawl on the environment and public infrastructure.
Furthermore, preserving green spaces in urban areas is essential for maintaining environmental sustainability and enhancing residents’ quality of life. Strategic land use planning that balances development and conservation will allow for continued growth while protecting natural resources.
Transportation and Infrastructure
As Arizona’s population expands, the demand for efficient transportation systems becomes a key policy focus. Expanding public transit networks such as buses and light rail can help connect suburban and urban areas, improving mobility and reducing traffic congestion. According to reports, addressing these needs through infrastructure investments is essential to support the growing population.
Additionally, Arizona must focus on sustainable transportation options. Investing in bike lanes and electric vehicle charging stations can promote eco-friendly commuting alternatives, contributing to environmental sustainability.
The integration of these options, along with regular maintenance and upgrades to existing roads and bridges, will ensure Arizona’s infrastructure remains robust and capable of handling future growth.
