ALBANY, NY — New York State may experience a population decline of over 2 million residents by 2050 a completely different demographic picture, according to new projections from Cornell University’s Jeb E. Brooks School of Public Policy.
The findings underscore an urgent demographic challenge fueled by domestic migration, declining fertility rates, and an aging population.
If these trends persist, New York’s population could drop by 13%, leaving the state with just over 17 million residents in the next 25 years.
The projections, which update numbers last published in 2018, integrate newly available data from the 2020 census.
Analysts from Cornell’s Program on Applied Demographics (PAD) warn that the most extreme scenarios suggest a loss of up to 2.7 million residents statewide, particularly in rural and upstate areas that have long contended with economic stagnation and outmigration.
A Perfect Storm of Challenges
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The drivers of New York’s projected population decline are multifaceted. Domestic outmigration remains the largest factor, as residents continue to leave the state at one of the highest rates in the country.
More than 631,000 people have exited New York since 2020, with over 100,000 leaving in a single year ending in July 2023, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.
The majority moved to states like Florida, Texas, and California, with others relocating within the Northeast to nearby states such as New Jersey, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania.
Low fertility rates compound the issue. Birth rates are insufficient to replace an aging population, leaving the state reliant on migration to maintain workforce numbers and economic vitality. However, new arrivals have not yet offset the loss of residents, raising concerns about future economic sustainability.
“Conservative estimates suggest a population decrease of 2 million by 2050, but we think an even greater decline is more likely,” said Jan Vink, lead analyst with PAD. “Without significant changes to current demographic trends, the population decline will continue.”
Economic and Political Implications
The potential loss of millions of residents carries significant economic and political consequences.
Fewer residents mean reduced tax revenue, which could strain funding for infrastructure projects and social services.
State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli has already raised alarms about the departure of high-income taxpayers, whose contributions play a vital role in maintaining New York’s financial health.
Justin Wilcox, executive director of Upstate United, a trade coalition advocating for rural economic development, pointed to affordability issues and remote work as major factors driving residents out of the state.
“The costs of living and doing business in New York are simply too high,” Wilcox said. “People are voting with their feet, and policymakers need to address both the costs and benefits of their decisions.”
Meanwhile, political debates over the causes of the exodus have intensified.
Republicans blame a burdensome regulatory environment and high taxes under Democratic leadership for driving businesses and residents to more affordable states.
High-profile business closures, including the relocation of Remington Arms to Georgia and Sumitomo’s plant closure in Erie County, have amplified these criticisms.
Opportunities Amid Challenges
Despite the grim projections, opportunities remain to stabilize New York’s population.
Migration policies encouraging an influx of residents from neighboring states or international communities could mitigate the decline.
Migrants have already begun filling gaps in New York’s labor market, providing a potential pathway to reverse outmigration trends.
“There’s no silver bullet,” said Leslie Reynolds, a researcher with PAD. “But addressing factors like affordable childcare, housing, and job opportunities could encourage families to stay and thrive in New York.”
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State and local leaders have touted initiatives to rejuvenate upstate communities, including partnerships with major employers like Micron and Global Foundries.
These projects aim to inject vitality into areas hit hardest by population loss. Governor Kathy Hochul and Senator Charles Schumer have both championed these efforts, though the long-term impact remains uncertain.
Looking Ahead
The Cornell report comes at a time when New York’s policymakers are under increasing pressure to tackle the state’s affordability crisis and prevent further population losses.
Upcoming county-by-county data from Cornell’s PAD is expected to provide more granular insights into where declines are occurring, offering a roadmap for targeted interventions.
“New York’s population challenges are deeply rooted but not insurmountable,” Reynolds added. “By understanding the drivers of decline, the state can take meaningful steps to secure its future.”
As the Northeast continues to lead the nation in population decline, New York’s ability to adapt to these shifting demographics will determine its economic resilience and social fabric for decades to come.
