New York Population – 2024 Growth, Decline, and Migration Trends

Recent data shows changes in New York’s population, with both growth and decline in different areas.

From April 2010 to April 2020, New York City’s population grew by 7.7%, outpacing the state and national averages. Brooklyn played a major role in this urban growth, reflecting broader trends of urbanization.

However, New York State has seen a significant decline, losing more than 631,000 residents since April 2020, the largest population loss in the U.S.

This decrease is mainly due to domestic migration, with more people leaving the state than moving in since 2011. Despite this, the state’s population in 2023 was still 19.57 million.

While some parts of New York City have experienced strong growth, the overall post-pandemic population recovery has been slower.

Overview

New York State continues to be a significant demographic area in the United States.

As of 2024, the overall population of the wider metro area stands at approximately 19.57 million, reflecting a slight year-over-year decrease according to Macrotrends.

New York City remains the most populous city within the state, with a 2024 population of 8,097,282. Despite its size, the city has experienced a population decline of 1.95% annually since the last census according to The New York Times.

County Population

The state’s most populated counties include Kings County (2,648,771), Queens County (2,358,582), and New York County (1,664,727). These numbers highlight the concentration of residents in urban areas.

Demographics and Religion

New York State showcases a diverse population in terms of race, ethnicity, and religion.

Approximately 70% of the inhabitants identify as Christians:

• 39% Roman Catholic
• 7% Baptist
• 6% Methodist

Population changes over the past two decades reveal an increase of 574,257 people from 2000 to 2023. However, recent years have shown a declining trend. For example, between 2022 and 2023, the population decreased by 0.52%.

Age Distribution

The population includes a substantial number of both young adults and elderly residents. The city has a significant portion of its inhabitants between the ages of 25 to 34, driven by job opportunities and educational institutions.

The presence of older adults aged 65 and above is also notable, partly due to a strong healthcare system and amenities for retirees. There has been a gradual increase in the number of children and teenagers, indicating that many families continue to reside in the city despite economic challenges according to the World Population Review.

Ethnic and Racial Composition

Major racial groups include White, Black or African American, Asian, and Hispanic or Latino.

Significant proportions of residents are foreign-born, contributing to the city’s multicultural identity. The Hispanic and Latino population, for example, represents a substantial and growing demographic, shaping many neighborhoods’ cultural landscapes.

African Americans have long been a pivotal community within the city, while the Asian population has seen rapid growth in recent years, particularly in boroughs like Queens and Brooklyn.

Migration Patterns

The inbound migration to New York has seen a dramatic reduction. During the period from 2010 to 2023, the state experienced fewer people moving in due to stricter federal immigration policies starting in 2017. Historically, international migrants constituted a key driver of population growth in New York City.

In contrast, Illinois has seen a modest increase in inbound migration, particularly as people sought more affordable housing and remote work opportunities in the Midwest.

According to the latest data, the decline in international migration was exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

For instance, in 2022, the net international migration remained alarmingly low compared to pre-2017 levels. The city’s efforts to attract new residents through various incentives have shown minimal impact against these overarching trends.

Additionally, much of the inbound migration has shifted toward suburban areas around New York City, as city life became less appealing during the pandemic.

Outbound Migration Statistics

New York State has faced more people leaving than entering since the 2011/2012 period. By 2020, this trend had intensified, significantly influencing population numbers. Specifically, New York City saw a 36 percent increase in change of address requests for move-outs in 2020.

In the 12 months ending July 1, 2021, New York City lost 305,665 residents, which accounted for nearly all of New York State’s largest single-year population drop. Reasons for this exodus include high living costs, the pandemic’s impact, and the shift towards remote work allowing more flexibility in living locations.

Internal Migration Within New York

Internal migration reveals a shift from urban centers to suburban counties. Many New York City residents moved to 12 suburban counties, reflecting changes in lifestyle preferences and housing affordability. For example, in 2020, data indicated a higher rate of intrastate moves compared to previous years.

Suburban areas saw a net growth as city inhabitants relocated for more spacious and affordable living conditions. New housing developments in these counties cater to this demand, adapting to the new influx of former city residents. Despite these changes, some urban areas within the state have managed to retain their population due to robust local economies and amenities.

Impact of Migration on Demographics

Domestic Migration Trends

According to recent data, New York has experienced a significant net domestic migration loss. Since 2020, over 884,000 residents have moved to other states. This has made New York’s population decline one of the worst in the U.S. relative to its population size.

International Migration Slows

Federal restrictions on immigration since 2017 have slowed international immigration, historically a vital source of population growth. This decline was further accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Changes in Population Composition

The pandemic’s impact on migration led to noticeable changes in demographics, including declines in families with children. These shifts suggest the city’s age distribution and household compositions are changing.

Aging Population

Many counties in New York State now see more deaths than births, reflecting an aging population and declining fertility rates. Migration patterns might either mitigate or worsen this decline, depending on the balance of incoming younger residents and outgoing older populations as per the source.

Economic Impact

The demographic shifts have significant economic implications as well. The loss of younger, working-age residents could affect the labor market, tax base, and demand for services. The decline in families with children might impact school enrollment numbers.

Economic Influences on Population Trends

Income

Recent data reveals that the median household income in New York City is approximately $76,607, which is higher than the national average but below the median for families, which stands at $86,984. Married families in New York City have a significantly higher median income of $114,917. Non-family households earn less, with a median income of $57,037.

New York City’s income levels reflect the diverse economic landscape, with high living costs influencing income requirements. The average income figures, such as $138,569 for families and $122,667 for households, show the impact of high earners in the city, especially in areas like Manhattan. Despite these high figures, income inequality remains a concern, with many residents struggling with the high cost of living

Job Market Fluctuations

Private sector employment in New York City increased by 109,700 jobs over the past year, reaching a total of 4,186,400 positions in July 2024. The largest job gains were seen in private education and health services (+97,500), followed by leisure and hospitality (+23,500), professional and business services (+7,000), other services (+5,400), and trade, transportation, and utilities (+1,200).

Conversely, the city saw job losses in the information sector (-14,700), natural resources, mining, and construction (-9,100), and financial activities (-1,100). Manufacturing employment remained stable during this period.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in New York City was 5.0% in July, which is a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from June and unchanged from July 2023. The unemployment rate for New York State was 4.3% in the same month.

Additionally, the labor force participation rate, representing the percentage of the working-age population (16 years and older) either employed or actively looking for work, stood at 62.6% in July.

Housing Market Trends

In July 2024, New York City’s housing market showed signs of stability with a median listing home price of $799,000, which remained unchanged from the previous year. The median listing price per square foot stood at $829, and the median sold home price was recorded at $750,000.

Homes in the city sold for about 3.81% below the asking price, with a sale-to-list price ratio of 96.19%, indicating some room for negotiation by buyers according to the Realtor.

The real estate market was considered a buyer’s market, as the supply of homes outpaced demand. On average, properties took 75 days to sell, reflecting a slight increase in market time compared to the previous month but a minor decrease from the previous year.

New York City consists of 231 neighborhoods, offering a diverse range of housing options, including affordable apartments.

As of now, there are approximately 32,965 homes listed for sale across the city. The city also boasts a significant number of highly rated educational institutions, with 2,276 public schools receiving good or higher ratings by GreatSchools, alongside 1,282 private and charter schools.

Government Policies and Population Control

Government policies significantly impact population growth and migration patterns in New York. These policies span housing, taxation, and social welfare.

Housing initiatives play a crucial role. Efforts to increase affordable housing aim to retain residents and attract new ones. For example, New York has implemented various rent control measures and affordable housing programs.

Tax policies also influence population trends. High state and city taxes have been cited as factors driving residents to other states. Conversely, tax incentives for businesses aim to create jobs and retain the workforce.

Social services and welfare programs affect demographic changes as well. Generous welfare policies can attract lower-income residents, while high living costs may deter others. Investment in education, healthcare, and public safety also contribute to population dynamics.

Migration policies affect not only international immigrants but also domestic migration. Policies to welcome immigrants can help offset population decline.

Future Projections and Concerns

National projections estimate that the U.S. population will rise to approximately 371 million by 2050, continuing a pattern of slowed growth. Specifically, New York City’s recent data shows a population of around 8.4 million as of 2018, with the city’s growth.

In comparison, New York State has experienced considerable population declines, with a reduction of around 631,104 residents from the 2020 census base count. While future projections indicate this trend may continue, the rate might stabilize depending on various socio-economic factors and migration patterns.

Challenges Ahead

One critical challenge is the population decline, as New York State saw the largest loss of any state, dropping by 101,984 residents in a single year. Such declines can strain economic growth, affecting labor markets and tax revenues.

Additionally, the increasing population in urban centers like New York City places demands on infrastructure, housing, and public services. Addressing these issues requires comprehensive urban planning and policy adjustments to accommodate growth without compromising quality of life.

Balancing these urban-rural dynamics and mitigating the effects of migration and population shifts are crucial for the state’s future stability and prosperity.