Recent estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau and Portland State University (PSU) reveal that Oregon’s population experienced modest growth between July 2023 and July 2024.
The Census Bureau reports an increase of 18,718 residents, bringing the state’s total to approximately 4.27 million—a growth rate of less than 0.5%.
PSU’s estimates are slightly lower, indicating an addition of 13,358 people during the same period.
Historical Context and Recent Trends
Oregon’s population grew this year — and the year before that, it turns out https://t.co/JfPlianqPY
— Oregonian Business (@OregonianBiz) December 19, 2024
Historically, Oregon has enjoyed steady population growth, particularly during economic booms in the 1970s and 1990s.
However, in recent years, this trend has decelerated.
Notably, between 2021 and 2023, the state experienced population declines, with decreases of 17,086 residents from 2021 to 2022 and 6,021 from 2022 to 2023.
The current modest uptick suggests a potential stabilization, though the growth remains slower compared to previous decades.
Implications for the Labor Market
State Employment Economist Grail Krumenauer emphasizes that population growth has been a primary driver of labor force expansion in Oregon over the past few decades.
The recent slowdown poses challenges for employers, particularly in sectors dependent on an influx of talent from other regions.
This deceleration contributes to a tight labor market, characterized by more job openings than available job seekers.
Nationally, there have been periods where job openings outnumbered unemployed individuals, and while Oregon’s situation is slightly less severe—with about three unemployed people for every two job openings—the tight labor market remains a concern.
Regional Variations in Growth
Population changes are not uniform across Oregon’s counties.
Deschutes County leads with a 5.55% increase, reflecting its appeal as a desirable living location and its growing tourism and recreational industries.
In contrast, Wheeler County experienced a decline of 1.17%. These disparities highlight the diverse demographic dynamics within the state.
Natural Decrease and Migration Patterns
PSU researchers note a “natural decrease” in Oregon’s population, with deaths outnumbering births by nearly 4,000 last year.
This shift underscores the state’s increasing reliance on net in-migration for population growth.
Without the influx of approximately 17,000 new residents, Oregon’s population would be in decline.
Future Projections
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Looking ahead, the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis forecasts a steady but slow population increase, reaching approximately 4.487 million by 2033.
This projection represents an annual growth rate of 0.6% between 2024 and 2033, indicating that while growth is expected to continue, it will do so at a more measured pace compared to historical trends.
Oregon’s recent population estimates reflect a period of modest growth, with significant implications for the state’s labor market and economic planning. The reliance on in-migration amidst a natural decrease presents challenges and opportunities for policymakers and businesses alike.
