Ten years after China officially ended its controversial one-child policy, the country is facing a sobering reality: birth rates are still falling, fast.
Despite efforts to reverse course with cash handouts and pro-family incentives, new government data shows China’s population shrank for the fourth consecutive year, signaling deeper demographic challenges ahead for the world’s second-most populous country.
A Population in Decline
View this post on Instagram
According to figures released Monday, China’s total population dropped by 3 million in 2025, falling to 1.404 billion people. The number of new births also plummeted; just 7.92 million babies were born last year, a steep 17% decline from 2024.
This sharp drop dashes hopes that a brief uptick in 2024 signaled a lasting rebound.
What’s Behind the Decline?
While China officially scrapped its one-child policy in 2015, the decades-long practice has reshaped societal expectations around family size. Even after the birth limit was raised to two, and then to three children in 2021, many families still hesitate.
The reasons are complex, but consistent:
“It’s not just policy anymore,” say demographers. “It’s mindset, money, and lifestyle.”
Fertility Rate Danger Zone
China’s fertility rate, the average number of children a woman is expected to have, was last officially reported as 1.3 in 2020, but many experts believe it’s now closer to 1.0. That’s far below the replacement level of 2.1, which is the number needed to keep a population stable.
In fact, 2025 recorded China’s lowest birth rate on record: just 5.63 births per 1,000 people.
Cash Bonuses, Condom Taxes, and Policy Experiments
In response, the Chinese government has rolled out a mixed bag of incentives and disincentives, some traditional, some eyebrow-raising.
While officials say these policies are meant to “support child-rearing,” critics argue they place pressure on personal freedoms and miss the broader structural problems behind the country’s fertility decline.
A Global Shift
🚨 India overtakes China to become the most populous country in the world. (UN)
India population – 1,428.6 million
China population – 1,425.7 million.— Indian Tech & Infra (@IndianTechGuide) April 19, 2023
For decades, China held the title of the world’s most populous nation, until India surpassed it in 2023.
Now, as China watches its population shrink, officials face the difficult question of how to sustain long-term growth with fewer workers, more retirees, and shrinking younger generations.
Some experts worry the demographic shift could slow China’s economy, strain its healthcare and pension systems, and reduce its global influence over time.
Bottom Line
Ending the one-child policy was only the first step. Getting people to want more children, a mid rising costs, cultural shifts, and economic pressure, is proving to be the real challenge.
And so far, the numbers show: China isn’t winning that fight.
