2016 Births in the US – A Detailed Look at the Provisional Data

The dynamics of childbirth in the United States are continually shifting, reflecting changes in societal norms, healthcare practices, and demographic trends.

Recently, an insightful interview with Brady Hamilton, Ph.D., a statistician and demographer shed light on the provisional birth data for 2016.

This blog post is about findings from that interview and incorporates crucial information from the CDC’s report, “Births: Provisional Data for 2016,” to provide a thorough understanding of the current state of births in the U.S.

Provisional Data Reporting

One of the significant changes highlighted by Dr. Hamilton is the shift from “preliminary” to “provisional” in the nomenclature of the birth data reports.

He stated:

This change is not merely semantic but represents a strategic move by the CDC to provide a consistent set of quarterly and annual data releases under the National Vital Statistics System’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release provisional data series.

Despite the change in terminology, the data processing procedures remain consistent, ensuring comparability between provisional and previous preliminary data.

The adoption of “provisional” underscores the CDC’s commitment to delivering timely and reliable statistics, facilitating prompt public health responses and policy-making.

Overall Decline in Births and Fertility Rates

According to the provisional data for 2016, the United States witnessed a continued decline in the number of births and general fertility rates. Specifically, there was a 1% decrease in the total number of births from 2015, bringing the figure down to approximately 3.94 million births. The general fertility rate also reached a record low of 62.0 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44, marking a 1% decline from the previous year.

This downward trend reflects a significant shift in reproductive patterns, with potential implications for future population growth and demographic composition.

Several factors may contribute to this decline, including economic considerations, shifting societal attitudes toward family planning, and increased access to reproductive health services.

Age-Specific Birth Rate Trends

• Women Under 30: Birth rates declined for women in all age groups under 30 years between 2015 and 2016, reaching record lows across the board. This decline continues a pattern observed over the past decade, indicating a sustained shift in the reproductive behavior of younger women.
• Women Aged 30–34: In a noteworthy development, women aged 30–34 experienced an increase in birth rates, surpassing those of any other age group for the first time since 1983. The birth rate for this group was 102.6 births per 1,000 women, highlighting a trend towards delayed motherhood.
• Women in Their Late 30s and Early 40s: Birth rates for women aged 35–39 and 40–44 also saw increases, continuing a long-standing upward trend. This rise may be attributed to factors such as career prioritization, advancements in fertility treatments, and evolving societal norms regarding parenthood at older ages.

Continued Decline in Teen Birth Rates

He also stated some following findings from the provisional data:

The birth rate for teenagers aged 15–19 declined by 9% in 2016, reaching a historic low of 20.3 births per 1,000 women.

For younger teenagers aged 15–17, the birth rate decreased by 11%, while older teenagers aged 18–19 saw an 8% decline.

This decline builds upon a continuous average decrease of 8% per year from 2007 through 2014, underscoring a significant public health success.

Nonmarital Birth Trends

Dr. Hamilton also highlighted changes in nonmarital birth trends:

“There was a 3% decline in the nonmarital birth rate in 2016, bringing it down to 42.1 births per 1,000 unmarried women aged 15–44.”

“Despite the decline in rates, the percentage of all births to unmarried women remained relatively stable at 39.8%, suggesting that while fewer unmarried women are giving birth, they still constitute a significant portion of total births.”

Prenatal Care and Cesarean Deliveries

Improvements in prenatal care and delivery methods were also observed:

• Prenatal Care: Slightly more than three out of four women (77.1%) began prenatal care in the first trimester in 2016, a slight decrease from 77.6% in 2015. Early prenatal care is crucial for monitoring the health of both mother and baby, and efforts to encourage timely care remain essential.
• Cesarean Delivery Rates: The cesarean delivery rate declined for the fourth consecutive year to 31.9% in 2016, down from a peak of 32.9% in 2009. This reduction aligns with medical guidelines advocating for lower cesarean rates to minimize risks associated with surgical births when not medically necessary.

Rise in Preterm Births and Low Birthweight Infants

Contrasting the positive trends, the provisional data highlights areas of concern:

• Preterm Birth Rate: The preterm birth rate rose for the second consecutive year to 9.84% in 2016, a 2% increase from 2015. This uptick follows a significant decline of 8% from 2007 to 2014 according to a CDC report.
• Low Birthweight Rate: Similarly, the low birthweight rate increased to 8.16%, marking the second straight year of rise after previous declines.

These increases are worrisome because preterm births and low birth weight are associated with higher risks of infant mortality and long-term health complications. Addressing the factors contributing to these trends is critical for improving neonatal outcomes.

References

1. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Osterman MJK, Driscoll AK, Drake P. Births: Final Data for 2016. Natl Vital Stat Rep. 2018 Jan;67(1):1-55. PMID: 29775434.