US Prepares for Climate Migration with “Receiving Cities” Program

The United States is gearing up for an unprecedented wave of domestic migration as extreme weather, rising sea levels, and natural disasters drive Americans to seek refuge in geographically resilient regions.

According to a New America study, up to 20 million people could relocate to safer areas like the Midwest, Northeast, and Northern Great Plains by 2100.

The federal government is stepping up with a Receiving Cities Housing Program, aiming to bolster cities like Detroit, Duluth, Buffalo, and Cincinnati.

These post-industrial hubs have the capacity to welcome new residents but currently face critical challenges like housing shortages and underfunded infrastructure.

The Sun Belt Exodus

For the past 50 years, states in the Sun Belt—such as Florida, Texas, and Arizona—have drawn millions of new residents seeking affordable housing, low taxes, and warm weather.

This migration fueled local economies, creating jobs and boosting housing markets.

However, the tide is shifting as extreme heat, flooding, wildfires, and sea-level rise make these areas less livable.

A Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco study reveals a growing trend of people moving away from areas exposed to extreme heat and toward cooler regions.

Yet many who leave high-risk areas end up settling in equally vulnerable nearby locations.

First Street Foundation reports that 3.2 million people have already relocated due to flood risks.

Meanwhile, others continue to move to the Sun Belt, unaware of the long-term risks.

This decision to remain or settle in at-risk areas has severe economic consequences.

Local and state governments risk financial losses from property damage, reduced tax revenue, and market collapses in real estate and insurance.

Federal disaster relief programs, such as the National Flood Insurance Program, are already struggling to remain solvent under the weight of increasing payouts.

Challenges for Receiving Cities

Regions in the Midwest, Northeast, and northern Great Plains, often referred to as Receiving Cities, represent potential hubs for population inflows.

Cities like Detroit, Duluth, Buffalo, and Cincinnati are well-positioned geographically to handle climate-driven migration.

Historically, these cities have seen population declines due to deindustrialization and economic disinvestment, leaving them with latent urban capacity for growth.

However, these cities face significant barriers to absorbing new residents. Many suffer from housing shortages, underfunded infrastructure, and strained public services.

For instance, a 2020 University of Michigan study found that Detroit, despite its many vacant properties, lacked 24,000 habitable homes.

Similarly, Duluth needs 2,400 additional housing units just to meet current demand, according to a 2022 report.

Housing Shortfalls in Key Receiving Cities

Without adequate planning, the arrival of climate migrants could overwhelm housing markets, drive up costs, and displace existing residents.

Cities like Chico, California, experienced a 21% spike in housing prices following population growth from the 2018 Camp Fire.

Smaller cities, often lacking resources, are especially vulnerable to such disruptions.

Federal Action Plan

Addressing housing challenges is critical for the future success of our city, and at yesterday’s @leagueofcities panel discussion, we talked about solutions. It was wonderful to share what’s worked for us and learn about what’s been successful in other cities. pic.twitter.com/tRdbFmB3JM

— Jane Castor (@JaneCastor) November 15, 2024

The new administration’s Receiving Cities Housing Program is designed to proactively address these challenges, ensuring that designated cities are ready to welcome new residents.

The program will focus on housing production, preservation, and providing financial incentives for voluntary relocation.

1. Research and Designation of Receiving Cities

To guide this effort, the government will expand research on climate resilience, migration trends, and urban carrying capacity.

Agencies like FEMA, HUD, and the U.S. Census Bureau will analyze data to identify cities best suited to handle population inflows.

These cities must demonstrate a commitment to affordable housing development, resilient urban planning, and socioeconomic equity.

2. Housing Production and Preservation

The program will include two key components:

• New Homes Program: Federal funding and technical support will help cities build affordable housing. Programs like HUD’s HOME funds and FEMA’s Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities initiative will prioritize Receiving Cities.
• Home Restoration Program: This initiative will focus on rehabilitating vacant and older homes to make them market-ready. HUD’s FHA 203(k) program and local financing options will play a central role.

Key Federal Housing Programs

3. Financial Incentives for Migrants

The administration will pilot a relocation program offering tax breaks, housing vouchers, and training opportunities for Americans moving from high-risk areas.

This builds on successful models like Tulsa Remote, which attracts professionals with relocation incentives and could serve as a template for climate migration efforts.

Framing Climate Migration as an Opportunity

The administration will frame weather-related migration as a manageable risk, akin to cybersecurity or national security challenges.

By positioning relocation as an economic and social opportunity, the government hopes to foster bipartisan backing.

Population inflows can revitalize struggling cities by boosting local economies, filling labor gaps, and increasing tax bases.

Long-term planning and strategic investments will ensure that both new and existing residents enjoy equitable access to resources and opportunities.

Conclusion

By prioritizing the preparation of Receiving Cities and facilitating voluntary relocation, the U.S. can turn climate migration into a catalyst for revitalization.

The federal government’s comprehensive approach ensures equitable, sustainable growth for both newcomers and long-time residents, setting a new precedent for managing climate-driven migration.