Projections for California population in 2024 suggest continued modest growth.
Estimates indicate a total population of approximately 39,128,162 ย according to Governor Of California, slightly lower than four years prior due to ongoing issues such as housing affordability and an aging population.
Recent data shows California’s population increased by 67,000 people in 2023 after several years of decline as per NY Times notes.
This growth is primarily attributed to decreased mortality rates and natural population growth.
The Bay Area and other economic hubs have seen the most significant changes, with migrants drawn to areas that promise stronger job prospects.
Despite net migration losses in some regions, the increased birth rate and lower death rate have contributed to reversing the downward trend.
Approximately 31 counties experienced population increases, particularly in metropolitan regions.
Table of Contents
ToggleTop 5 Regions with the Largest Population Increases
In 2024, California has reversed its previous population decline, seeing modest growth, especially in several key regions.
The areas with the largest population increases include Southern California and parts of the Central Valley:
1. Riverside County
This county saw one of the highest increases, growing by 13,798 residents. The growth in Riverside is primarily due to its relatively affordable housing and the migration of residents from more expensive coastal areasโ according to The Real Deal.
Metric | 2023 | 2024 | Growth/Change |
---|---|---|---|
Population | 2,430,976 | 2,444,774 | +13,798 residents (0.57%) |
Median Home Price | $585,000 | $618,000 | +5.8% |
Median Rent | $2,410 | $2,445 | +1.5% |
Assessed Property Value | $403 billion | $432.97 billion | +7.11% |
Key Economic Sector (Retail Sales) | $4.98 billion | – | Retail, transportation, healthcare |
Construction Additions (Housing) | 10,300 units (2023) | 11,200 units (2024) | Significant rise in new constructions |
Sources: RivCo Office of Economic Development |, Redfin, County of Riverside, CA
2. San Bernardino County
Another Inland Empire region, San Bernardino, grew by 8,739 people, driven by similar trends as Riverside.
Metric | 2023 | 2024 | Growth/Change |
---|---|---|---|
Population | 2,184,537 | 2,193,276 | +8,739 residents (0.4%) |
Median Home Price | $500,000 | $527,000 | +5.4% |
Median Rent | $2,300 | $2,350 | +2.2% |
Assessed Property Value | $287 billion | $305 billion | +6.2% |
Key Economic Sector (Retail Sales) | $3.2 billion | – | Strong growth in logistics and retail |
Construction Additions (Housing) | 8,500 units | 9,100 units | Housing growth linked to warehousing |
Source: Department Of Finance
3. Orange County
Orange County added 9,770 residents, largely attributed to improved housing availability and immigration.
Metric
2023
2024
Growth/Change
Population
3,140,000
3,149,770
+9,770 residents (0.31%)
Median Home Price
$935,000
$960,000
+2.7%
Median Rent
$3,000
$3,050
+1.67%
Assessed Property Value
$630 billion
$658 billion
+4.4%
Key Economic Sector (Tech & Trade)
$7.8 billion
–
High-wage sectors driving demand
Construction Additions (Housing)
6,800 units
7,200 units
ADU growth, infill housing projects
Source: POLITICO
4. Los Angeles County
While growth was slower here compared to others, Los Angeles still added 4,779 people, reversing previous years of declineโ.
Metric
2023
2024
Growth/Change
Population
9,820,000
9,824,779
+4,779 residents (0.05%)
Median Home Price
$890,000
$1M
+5.2%
Median Rent
$3,200
$3,250
+1.6%
Assessed Property Value
$1.79 trillion
$1.84 trillion
+2.8%
Key Economic Sector (Entertainment)
$21 billion
–
Continues to drive demand for housing
Construction Additions (Housing)
20,000 units
21,000 units
Still insufficient to meet demand
Source: Redfin, LEADC, JVM Lending
5. San Diego County
Though smaller in total numbers compared to some areas, San Diego added over 5,700 new housing units, which supported population growth.
Metric
2023
2024
Growth/Change
Population
3,287,000
3,293,500
+6,500 residents (0.2%)
Median Home Price
$850,000
$975,000
+12.94%
Median Rent
$2,750
$2,800
+1.8%
Assessed Property Value
$637 billion
$652 billion
+2.35%
Key Economic Sector
$9 billion
–
Biotech, defense, healthcare strong
Construction Additions (Housing)
5,700 units
6,200 units
Demand continues in coastal areas
Source: Redfin, San Diego.gov
All Counties Population 2024
Rank
County
Population
1
Los Angeles County
9,824,779
2
San Diego County
3,293,500
3
Orange County
3,149,770
4
Riverside County
2,444,774
5
San Bernardino County
2,193,276
6
Santa Clara County
1,877,592
7
Alameda County
1,622,188
8
Sacramento County
1,584,288
9
Contra Costa County
1,155,025
10
Fresno County
1,017,162
11
Kern County
913,820
12
Ventura County
829,590
13
San Francisco County
808,988
14
San Joaquin County
800,965
15
San Mateo County
726,353
16
Stanislaus County
551,430
17
Sonoma County
481,812
18
Tulare County
479,468
19
Solano County
449,218
20
Santa Barbara County
441,257
21
Monterey County
430,723
22
Placer County
423,561
23
Merced County
291,920
24
San Luis Obispo County
281,639
25
Santa Cruz County
261,547
26
Marin County
254,407
27
Yolo County
220,544
28
Butte County
207,172
29
El Dorado County
192,215
30
Shasta County
180,366
31
Imperial County
179,057
32
Madera County
162,858
33
Kings County
152,682
34
Humboldt County
133,985
35
Napa County
133,216
36
Nevada County
102,037
37
Sutter County
97,948
38
Mendocino County
89,108
39
Yuba County
85,722
40
San Benito County
68,175
41
Lake County
67,878
42
Tehama County
64,896
43
Tuolumne County
54,204
44
Calaveras County
46,565
45
Siskiyou County
42,905
46
Amador County
41,811
47
Lassen County
28,861
48
Glenn County
28,129
49
Del Norte County
26,589
50
Colusa County
22,037
51
Plumas County
19,131
52
Inyo County
18,527
53
Mariposa County
16,919
54
Trinity County
15,670
55
Mono County
13,066
56
Modoc County
8,500
57
Sierra County
3,200
58
Alpine County
1,141
Source: www.california-demographics.com
Detailed Statistical Analysis
Population Growth Over the Years
Year
State Population
Annual Growth Rate (%)
Key Economic Initiative
Sector
Projected Growth (%)
2020
39.50 million
-0.5% (decline due to COVID-19)
Affordable Housing Initiatives
Housing
–
2021
39.12 million
-0.91% (post-pandemic effects)
Renewable Energy Projects
Green Tech
0.2%
2022
39.06 million
-0.19%
Agricultural Infrastructure Expansion
Agriculture
0.3%
2023
39.06 million
Stable (minor increase 0.05%)
Green Transportation Investments
Infrastructure
0.3%
2024
39.13 million
0.2%
Infrastructure Development (e.g., Riverside, Sutter)
Housing & Infrastructure
0.4%
2025 (Proj.)
39.25 million
0.3%
Renewable Energy Expansion
Green Tech
0.5%
2030 (Proj.)
40.00 million
0.6%
Statewide Affordable Housing Plan
Housing
0.6%
Key Economic Initiatives and Impact on Population Growth
1. Housing Initiatives
Ground Broken for New Affordable Housing Units in Riverside: https://t.co/KkjVjbXjD5 pic.twitter.com/66OONFaZYe
โ City of Riverside,CA (@riversidecagov) July 16, 2024
As of 2024, California’s focus on expanding affordable housing has been crucial, particularly in cities like Riverside and Yuba City. In 2024 alone, the state allocated over $2 billion toward housing development.โ
2. Agriculture and Rural Economic Development
Glenn Countyโs Agricultural Investments
A total of $200 million has been directed toward improving irrigation, water conservation, and farming efficiency in Glenn County.
This is projected to contribute to a 0.3% annual growth in the rural population.
3. Green Technology
Renewable Energy Projects
California has invested $1.5 billion in green technology, specifically renewable energy, and sustainable infrastructure in 2024.
Factors Influencing Population Growth
1. Immigration from Asia
California continues to attract immigrants, especially from Asia, which has replaced Latin America as the primary source of new arrivals.
Since 2006, Asian immigration has surpassed that of Latin America. The trend accelerated post-2010, with a steady increase in the proportion of highly educated immigrants contributing to Californiaโs tech, health, and educational sectors according to the Public Policy Institute of California.
In 2021, California saw a net immigration of 126,000 people, primarily from Asia. Sixty percent of these immigrants had at least a bachelorโs degreeโ
Highly educated Asian immigrants continue to bolster the labor force, particularly in sectors that require specialized skills, such as technology and healthcare.
2. Skilled Immigration
California continues to attract highly skilled professionals, especially in the tech, health, and engineering industries. These immigrants significantly contribute to the state’s economy and workforce.
This has been a growing trend since the early 2000s, with countries like India and China being the leading sources of tech professionals.
In 2020, 85% of Indian immigrants arriving in California had at least a bachelorโs degree, and they now represent one of the most educated immigrant groups in the stateโ.
These skilled immigrants are contributing to sectors critical to Californiaโs economy, making immigration one of the main factors supporting population growth.
3. Natural Population Growth Among Latino Communities
The Latino population has been one of the fastest-growing demographics in California due to higher birth rates compared to other ethnic groups, despite the overall declining birth rates. When: Since the 1990s, Latinos have become Californiaโs largest ethnic group, with continued growth projected into the 2030s.
Latinos make up 40% of Californiaโs population, and by 2030, this share is expected to grow to 41%, while accounting for over half (52%) of the stateโs youth under 17โ
The Latino population’s natural growth (births exceeding deaths) continues to contribute positively to Californiaโs population, particularly among the younger generation.
4. Economic Opportunities in the Technology Sector
The tech industry continues to be a magnet for both domestic and international migrants seeking high-paying jobs, driving population growth in areas like the Bay Area and Silicon Valley.
Californiaโs tech boom started in the late 20th century and remains a powerful factor attracting young professionals and skilled workers.
In 2021, over 16% of Californiaโs workforce was employed in the technology sector, which continues to see steady growth โaccording to SIEPR.
Economic opportunities in tech contribute to population growth, especially among young, educated professionals who move to California for work.
5. Higher Educational Institutions
California is home to some of the worldโs top universities, which attract both domestic and international students.
Many of these students choose to stay after completing their education.
This trend has been growing steadily, especially with the rise in demand for STEM-related programs.
In 2020, California had over 1 million students enrolled in public universities, a large proportion of whom are international studentsโas noted in PPIC analysis.
Californiaโs higher education system continues to attract and retain a young, educated population, fueling local economies and contributing to population stability.
6. Healthcare Industry Growth
California’s growing healthcare sector attracts workers from around the world. This is especially true as the state prepares for the aging population, which will demand more healthcare services.
This trend has gained importance since 2010, with an aging population driving the demand for healthcare professionals.
The healthcare industry accounts for 13% of Californiaโs total employment, making it one of the fastest-growing sectors in the stateโ.
As healthcare needs rise, so does the demand for healthcare workers, many of whom migrate to California for job opportunities, helping to boost the population.
7. Recovery in Immigration Post-Pandemic
After a sharp decline during the COVID-19 pandemic, immigration numbers are rebounding as travel restrictions ease, contributing to population growth.
This recovery began in 2021, following a drastic dip in 2020.
From July 2021 to July 2022, California saw a net gain of 116,000 immigrants, a significant recovery from the pandemic lowsโas per the LA TIMES.
The resumption of immigration following the pandemic is helping to stabilize and boost population numbers in the state.
8. Inland Empire Growth
Affordable housing and economic opportunities in regions like the Inland Empire have attracted families from more expensive coastal areas, contributing to regional population growth.
This trend has been accelerating since 2010 as housing prices in coastal areas like Los Angeles and the Bay Area continue to rise.
Department of Finance notes that the Inland Empireโs population grew by 3.5% from 2020 to 2021, one of the highest growth rates in the stateโ
The Inland Empire remains a promising area for first-time homebuyers and families, offering significantly lower median home prices compared to neighboring counties. For example, Riverside’s median home price is around $427,450, making it much more affordable than Orange County ($735,000) and Los Angeles County ($839,125).
This price gap underscores the Inland Empire’s affordability, offering more space and opportunity for buyers in an otherwise expensive housing market.
The Inland Empire is one of the few areas in California experiencing significant population growth due to its relative affordability and job opportunities.
9. Diverse Economy Supporting Job Growth
Unemployment Rate and Payroll Jobs in California (May-August 2024)
Month
Unemployment Rate (%)
Nonfarm Payroll Jobs
Monthly Job Gain/Loss
May 2024
5.2%
18,033,900
+43,700
July 2024
5.2%
18,084,200
+29,900
August 2024
5.3%
18,091,000
+6,800
The unemployment rate in California increased slightly from 5.2% to 5.3% in August 2024, following three consecutive months of stability. While job growth slowed, the state still added 6,800 jobs in August. This followed a strong month in July, where 29,900 jobs were added as noted by EDD.
Year-Over Nonfarm Job Growth Comparison (California vs. U.S.)
California outpaced national job growth from August 2023 to August 2024, with a 1.6% increase in nonfarm jobs compared to the U.S. average of 1.5%. This suggests that, despite certain challenges, Californiaโs labor market remains strong relative to the national economy, driven by key sectors such as Leisure & Hospitality and Health Services.
Industry-Specific Job Changes in California (August 2024)
Among Californiaโs 11 major industries, Leisure & Hospitality saw the largest increase in August 2024, adding 6,800 jobs, primarily in Accommodation and Food Services. Health Services also experienced growth, with 4,900 new jobs, particularly in Ambulatory Health Care and Hospitals.
Conversely, the Information sector saw the most significant decline, losing 5,100 jobs, partially due to restructuring in the Motion Picture and Video Production industry post-strike. The Government sector also contracted, with a reduction of 2,200 jobs, largely in State Government positions.
Monthly Change in Nonfarm Payroll Jobs (July – August 2024)
Californiaโs job growth slowed from July to August 2024. After a strong increase of 29,900 jobs in July, the state added only 6,800 jobs in August. This deceleration indicates potential cooling in the job market, even though overall payroll employment remains strong at 18,091,000 jobs.
Future Projections (2025โ2030)
- Population Growth: The California Department of Finance projects a steady 0.5% annual growth rate from 2025 onward, as infrastructure and green technology investments continue.
- Projected Population by 2030: California’s population is expected to reach 44.1 million by 2030, fueled by economic initiatives in housing, green technology, and rural agricultural developmentโ.
Methodology
To conduct this analysis, we first collected population data for California from multiple authoritative sources such as the California Department of Finance, U.S. Census Bureau, and regional economic development reports. We then focused on specific counties and regions that showed significant population changes in 2023 and 2024, identifying key drivers such as housing affordability, job opportunities, and economic initiatives.
Next, we analyzed county-specific data for sectors like housing, healthcare, and technology to understand their influence on migration and growth. We compared growth rates and economic trends across counties to provide insights into California’s population dynamics.
Additionally, we reviewed projections from state departments to estimate future growth trends up to 2030. Finally, all findings were summarized into a detailed, data-driven report with tables and projections to offer a clear view of California’s population and economic landscape.
Conclusion
California’s population growth in 2024 highlights the dynamic nature of the state’s demographic trends. The top five regions with the largest increasesโSutter County, Imperial County, Glenn County, Yuba County, and San Benito Countyโillustrate the factors driving this growth and its impact on local economies and communities.
Similarly, Dallas’ population boom serves as a reminder of how urban areas nationwide are experiencing significant demographic shifts.
As the state continues to evolve, addressing the challenges and leveraging the opportunities presented by population growth will be crucial for sustainable development.
Sources:
- GOV.CA – Californiaโs Population is Increasing
- The New York Times – Californiaโs Population Grows
- The Real Deal – California population grows with SoCal adding most residents
- RIVCOED – Population Estimates for Riverside County and Cities 2020 – 2024, with 2020 Benchmark
- Redfin –ย Riverside County, CA Housing Market
- Redfin – Los Angeles County, CA Housing Market
- Redfin – San Diego, CA Housing Market
- Rivco – Riverside County Assessor Announces $432 Billion in Total Assessed Value
- DOF – STATEโS POPULATION INCREASES WHILE HOUSING GROWS PER NEW STATE DEMOGRAPHIC REPORT
- Politico – California finally reverses its population-loss streak
- LEADC –ย 2024 Economic Forecast Report
- JVMLENDING –ย 2024 Los Angeles Housing Market Outlook
- Sandiego.gov – Key Facts and Figures
- California Demographics – California Counties by Population (2024)
- PPIC –ย CALIFORNIAโS FUTURE
- PPIC – Whatโs Behind Californiaโs Recent Population Declineโand Why It Matters
- PPIC – Californiaโs Population
- Stanford University – California’s population drain
- Workforce – Healthcare Sector Overviewย
- Westcoerealtors – The Future of Housing in the Inland Empire: What to Expect in 25 Years
- EDD – California Gained 6,800 Nonfarm Payroll Jobs in August 2024