Population Decline in the US by State – Latest 2026 Census Data Shows Five States Shrinking

Population decline in the United States appears at the state level, while the national count still grew. The country reached 341,784,857 residents on July 1, 2025, according to the U.S. Census Bureau Vintage 2025 state population estimates.

That was an increase of 1,781,060 people from the previous year, or about 0.5 percent. The slower pace carries more weight than the topline growth number alone.

The Census Bureau January 2026 release shows that net international migration fell from 2.7 million to 1.3 million in the year ending June 30, 2025. Births still exceeded deaths nationally, yet natural increase remained far weaker than in earlier decades.

At the state level, the latest release points to a narrower but sharper divide. Forty-five states gained population from July 2024 to July 2025. Five states lost residents: California, Hawaii, New Mexico, Vermont, and West Virginia. Puerto Rico also declined and should be treated separately from the 50-state count.

Latest Insights

The latest official state dataset available in 2026 comes from Census Vintage 2025. It measures resident population totals and components of change from April 1, 2020, to July 1, 2025.

State population estimates for July 2026 have yet to be released, so the freshest official state-level figures are the 2025 estimates published in January 2026.

States That Lost Population

The population decline in 2025 was limited to five states. The reasons differed by state. California and Hawaii were pulled down mainly by domestic outmigration. Vermont, New Mexico and West Virginia showed the effect of natural decrease, where deaths exceeded births.

Largest State Declines

Why States Lose Population

The Census Bureau measures population changes through births, deaths, domestic migration, and international migration. The Vintage 2025 methodology statement describes the basic formula: population base, plus births, minus deaths, plus migration, equals the population estimate.

Natural Decrease

Natural decrease happens when deaths outnumber births. In 2025, 17 states had negative natural change: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Kentucky, Maine, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and West Virginia.

Natural decrease plays a central role in places with older age structures. West Virginia offers the clearest example among the states that declined. The state gained 6,408 people from domestic migration in 2025, but deaths exceeded births by 7,887. That was enough to push the total population lower.

Domestic Outmigration

Domestic migration measures movement between U.S. states. In 2025, 20 states and the District of Columbia had negative domestic migration. California had the largest domestic loss at -229,077. New York followed at -137,586. Illinois, New Jersey, and Massachusetts also recorded large domestic migration losses.

Domestic migration helps explain why California declined, even with a natural increase of 109,715 and net international migration of 109,278. Those gains were nearly offset by the domestic outmigration of -229,077.

International Migration Slowdown

International migration remained positive for every state in 2025, but the size of the gain fell nationwide. The Census Bureau reported that net international migration dropped by 53.8 percent from the previous year.

The agency also projected that, if current patterns continue, net international migration could fall to about 321,000 by July 2026.

That shift changes the population outlook for states that had relied on international migration to offset domestic outmigration or natural decrease. New York, California, Illinois, New Jersey, and Massachusetts still received large international migration gains, yet several of those states remained close to flat growth or below their 2020 base.

Historical Context

State population decline has a long history, but the geography has changed. The Census historical population change table shows that the U.S. grew 7.4 percent from 2010 to 2020, the second-slowest decennial growth rate in U.S. history after the 1930s.

From 2010 to 2020, only three states lost population: Illinois, Mississippi, and West Virginia. Puerto Rico also recorded a steep decline over that decade.

In the 2020 to 2025 estimate period, seven states remained below their 2020 population base: California, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Mississippi, New York, and West Virginia.

Longer Historical Pattern

West Virginia stands out because decline has appeared in more than one decade. Census historical data show population losses from 1950 to 1960, 1960 to 1970, 1980 to 1990, and 2010 to 2020. The latest 2025 estimate keeps the state below its 2020 base.

The broader national story changed after 2020. Population growth returned from the unusually weak pandemic period, yet the gain now depends heavily on migration. When international migration slows and births remain low relative to earlier decades, more states sit closer to the line between growth and decline.

State-by-State Population Change And Migration Data

The table below includes all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. The 2020 to 2025 percentage uses the Census Vintage 2025 estimate base, so it should be treated as an estimate series comparison rather than a decennial census comparison.

State Comparisons

Fastest-Growing States By Percentage

Largest Numeric Growth

Largest Domestic Migration Losses

Largest Domestic Migration Gains

Additional Insights

1. California And The Cost-Driven Migration Gap

California remains the most populous state, but its 2025 decline shows how domestic migration can overtake large gains from births and international migration.

The state gained 109,715 people through natural change and 109,278 through international migration. Domestic migration was -229,077, which pulled the total below the 2024 level.

2. West Virginia And The Pressure Of Natural Decrease

West Virginia lost 1,255 residents in the latest estimate year. That number looks small, yet the structure behind it matters for long-term planning.

The state gained residents through domestic migration, but deaths exceeded births by 7,887. That kind of natural decrease can weigh on school enrollment, local labor supply, health care demand, and tax bases.

3. New York Near Flat Growth After Years Of Losses

New York added only 1,008 residents from 2024 to 2025, a near-flat result for a state of about 20 million people. The state remains 201,269 below its 2020 estimate base.

Large international migration and positive natural change nearly balanced domestic outmigration, leaving only slight growth in the latest year.

4. Florida Growth Shifts From Domestic Moves To Immigration

Florida added 196,680 people from 2024 to 2025, the second-largest numeric gain behind Texas. The mix changed, however.

Florida recorded a natural decrease of -1,333 and domestic migration of +22,517, far lower than earlier pandemic-era domestic gains. Net international migration of +178,674 accounted for most of the latest annual increase.

5. Rural Decline Remains A County-Level Population Story

State totals can hide local losses. The USDA Economic Research Service reported that nonmetropolitan areas grew after 2020 because migration offset natural decrease, yet 51 percent of nonmetro counties still lost population between July 2020 and June 2024.

Rural decline remained visible in parts of West Virginia, Pennsylvania, the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, Illinois, Iowa, California, the Mississippi Delta and Appalachia.

Methodology

Census population estimates are produced through a cohort-component method. The estimate starts with a base population, then adds births, subtracts deaths, and adds net migration. Domestic migration sums to zero nationally because every move between states adds to one state and subtracts from another. International migration affects the national total.

At the state level, the components of change may not add perfectly to the final population change because the Census Bureau uses residual adjustments to keep estimates consistent by geography and demographic characteristics.

FAQ

Conclusion

The latest 2026-released Census data shows a country still growing, but with a thinner margin. Population decline now depends less on one national story and more on the balance inside each state: births, deaths, domestic migration, and international migration.

California shows the impact of domestic outmigration in a large, high-cost state. West Virginia shows the pressure created by aging and natural decrease. New York and Illinois show how large states can remain below their 2020 base even after returning to slight annual growth.

Meanwhile, Texas, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia continue to absorb a large share of national growth.

The next official state estimate will show whether the 2025 slowdown was a temporary adjustment or the start of a more difficult demographic period for states already close to population decline.

Sources

• U.S. Census Bureau: State Population Totals And Components Of Change, 2020 To 2025
• U.S. Census Bureau: U.S. Population Growth Slows Due To Decline In Net International Migration
• U.S. Census Bureau: Vintage 2025 Methodology Statement
• U.S. Census Bureau: Historical Population Change Data, 1910 To 2020
• USDA Economic Research Service: Population And Migration